signal vs narrative
Definition
A filter that splits every input into two streams. Signal = material, costly, observable acts (troop deployments, sanctions list deltas, capital movements, sovereign-bond spreads, leak releases, balance-sheet moves, capex, regulatory filings). Narrative = cheap-to-produce statements (diplomatic proposals, ceasefire offers, communiques, spokesperson quotes, central-bank rhetoric without an accompanying balance-sheet move).
Material actions weight ~1.0× on equilibrium reads. Statements weight ~0.3× and lose entirely (× 0.0) when they contradict same-player actions within 14 days.
Why it matters for investors
The single most important guard against “peace-talk fakeout” reads. A diplomatic proposal coexisting with continued kinetic activity does not reverse the equilibrium read on its own. Applies generically — to central-bank speeches vs balance-sheet moves, corporate guidance vs capex prints, political statements vs regulatory filings. The discipline is what keeps the wiki’s structural fields anchored to costly-action evidence rather than rhetoric.
Cases we’ve covered
(empty at seed)
Distinguishing tells
- Statement followed by action in same direction within 14 days → SIGNAL credible, NARRATIVE confirmed
- Statement contradicted by action within 14 days → NARRATIVE drops to 0.0× weight
- Action without prior statement = the most informative SIGNAL; reveals true preference
- Repeated statements with no action = NARRATIVE-only, cumulative weight does not reach SIGNAL threshold
Misuse to avoid
- Counting a forceful statement as evidence of intent without checking for accompanying SIGNAL
- Discounting a small action because the public framing was conciliatory
- Failing to apply Gate 2b weighting when ingest-pass writes structural fields