Predictions

Falsifiable claims with hard resolution dates. Track record over time.

• 4 May 2026 · 2 min
  Prediction — EU mid-cap defense primes outperform US large-cap primes by ≥10pp over 12 months

  Resolution date 2027-05-04. EU basket (BAE, Rheinmetall, Saab, Leonardo, Thales) vs US large-cap primes (Lockheed, RTX, Northrop, GD). Pass = EU outperforms by ≥10pp on 12-month total return.