repeated game

Definition

A strategic interaction played multiple times by the same players, where past moves inform future strategies. Crucially, shadow of the future changes optimal play — strategies that lose in one round (cooperation, restraint) can win across many rounds because the opponent’s anticipation of continued interaction disciplines current behaviour.

Why it matters for investors

Most geopolitical situations the press reports as “one-off events” are repeated games. Tariff threats, sanctions waves, central-bank guidance, OPEC+ supply decisions — all part of an ongoing sequence. Pricing them as one-shot is the most common error and the most reliable mispricing the newsletter exploits.

Cases we’ve covered

(empty at seed — populated when themes reference this concept)

Distinguishing tells

• Public threats with vague timeline = signaling for next round, not commitment
• Bilateral statements after escalation = setup for the credible-commitment move
• “Strategic patience” framing = explicit acknowledgment of repeated structure
• Reciprocal-but-not-escalatory responses = tit-for-tat in active operation

Misuse to avoid

Repeated-game framing is overfit if applied to events where players genuinely don’t expect to interact again — one-shot security crises, terminal regimes, or events crossing thresholds that destroy the shadow-of-future entirely (regime change, total economic decoupling).